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[2023-09-08 02:10:34] <Lucifer_arma> Ok, besides stock prices, what else should be in a prediction?  I was considering putting standard deviation in it, where it would just be yesterday's standard deviation
[2023-09-08 02:10:35] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| Ok, besides stock prices, what else should be in a prediction?  I was considering putting standard deviation in it, where it would just be yesterday's standard deviation
[2023-09-08 02:11:49] <Lucifer_arma> I think max-min should be there, too, because if that's a real small number (like less than .20), then it's not something I'm going to be interested in
[2023-09-08 02:11:50] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| I think max-min should be there, too, because if that's a real small number (like less than .20), then it's not something I'm going to be interested in
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[2023-09-08 02:13:06] <Lucifer_arma> the purpose of these other fields in a prediction is so that I can put them in a where clause, and so they'll be right there when I'm doing calculations with the prediction to determine if I should buy/sell/ignore
[2023-09-08 02:13:06] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| the purpose of these other fields in a prediction is so that I can put them in a where clause, and so they'll be right there when I'm doing calculations with the prediction to determine if I should buy/sell/ignore
[2023-09-08 02:13:46] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| basically, the first thing the trading algorithm will do is select * from predictions where date=today;
[2023-09-08 02:13:50] <Lucifer_arma> basically, the first thing the trading algorithm will do is select * from predictions where date=today;
[2023-09-08 02:14:03] <Lucifer_arma> Then it'll iterate over that list to build a list of stocks to trade.
[2023-09-08 02:14:03] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| Then it'll iterate over that list to build a list of stocks to trade.
[2023-09-08 02:15:43] <Lucifer_arma> I could curve_fit SMA, or any techindicator, for that matter and predict those values.  Then my where clause could include "SMA.low > prediction.low", which is a common way to determine if a stock is undervalued, thus making it a potential investment
[2023-09-08 02:15:43] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| I could curve_fit SMA, or any techindicator, for that matter and predict those values.  Then my where clause could include "SMA.low > prediction.low", which is a common way to determine if a stock is undervalued, thus making it a potential investment
[2023-09-08 02:16:11] <Lucifer_arma> of course, I can also just do two queries where I check yesterday's numbers
[2023-09-08 02:16:11] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| of course, I can also just do two queries where I check yesterday's numbers
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[2023-09-08 10:11:43] <armagetronbridge> 08discord:delinquent| This might be a head-in-the-clouds suggestion. If you can find some way to add in a metric for an org's actions, that would be something fairly unique to you. I would look to comprise it of two overall metrics - one being the financial impact, and one being the social impact. Whilst the former is important to traditional market participants, the latter is becoming more important  <clipped message>
[2023-09-08 10:11:44] <armagetron-bridge> 08discord:delinquent| This might be a head-in-the-clouds suggestion. If you can find some way to add in a metric for an org's actions, that would be something fairly unique to you. I would look to comprise it of two overall metrics - one being the financial impact, and one being the social impact. Whilst the former is important to traditional market participants, the latter is becoming more important  <clipped message>
[2023-09-08 10:11:44] <armagetron-bridge> 08discord:delinquent| to retail investors. The GME incident is a very good example of this.
[2023-09-08 10:11:44] <armagetronbridge> 08discord:delinquent| to retail investors. The GME incident is a very good example of this.
[2023-09-08 10:11:49] <armagetronbridge> 08discord:delinquent| You could conceivably define preeminent scoring for certain actions, that impact both metrics. For example, an organisation that goes on a significant hiring spree without any obvious projects for those hires to work on is more than likely trying to limit the resources of its competition. This frequently results in mass layoffs later on down the line. FAANG orgs do this a *lot*,  <clipped message>
[2023-09-08 10:11:50] <armagetron-bridge> 08discord:delinquent| You could conceivably define preeminent scoring for certain actions, that impact both metrics. For example, an organisation that goes on a significant hiring spree without any obvious projects for those hires to work on is more than likely trying to limit the resources of its competition. This frequently results in mass layoffs later on down the line. FAANG orgs do this a *lot*,  <clipped message>
[2023-09-08 10:11:50] <armagetron-bridge> 08discord:delinquent| in a recurrent cycle, so having this information available would be useful. You can also use these metrics to form a profile of your users, so you can base investment suggestions around their values using these metrics. That would also require some fairly detailed information - so, for example, analysing job vacancy advertisements, which you can potentially scrape in bulk.
[2023-09-08 10:11:50] <armagetronbridge> 08discord:delinquent| in a recurrent cycle, so having this information available would be useful. You can also use these metrics to form a profile of your users, so you can base investment suggestions around their values using these metrics. That would also require some fairly detailed information - so, for example, analysing job vacancy advertisements, which you can potentially scrape in bulk.
[2023-09-08 10:11:51] <armagetron-bridge> 08discord:delinquent| It doesn't have to be limited to internal stuff, though - you can look at, for example, outreaches by a given org both domestically and internationally - and include opinion and comment from multiple sources. Take Ukraine's criticism of Musk today - Starlink is accused of deliberately disabling (or potentially not enabling) internet access in the Crimea region during a strike at  <clipped message>
[2023-09-08 10:11:51] <armagetronbridge> 08discord:delinquent| It doesn't have to be limited to internal stuff, though - you can look at, for example, outreaches by a given org both domestically and internationally - and include opinion and comment from multiple sources. Take Ukraine's criticism of Musk today - Starlink is accused of deliberately disabling (or potentially not enabling) internet access in the Crimea region during a strike at  <clipped message>
[2023-09-08 10:11:52] <armagetron-bridge> 08discord:delinquent| Russian naval forces. You can read quite a lot into this, both in Ukraine's criticism, and Musk's response. One the one hand, this action may have had a significant impact on Ukraine's ability to deploy forces, giving reason to those symapthetic to Ukraine to withdraw their holdings. However, you could also argue that Starlink is avoiding potential ITAR restrictions, which means  <clipped message>
[2023-09-08 10:11:52] <armagetronbridge> 08discord:delinquent| Russian naval forces. You can read quite a lot into this, both in Ukraine's criticism, and Musk's response. One the one hand, this action may have had a significant impact on Ukraine's ability to deploy forces, giving reason to those symapthetic to Ukraine to withdraw their holdings. However, you could also argue that Starlink is avoiding potential ITAR restrictions, which means  <clipped message>
[2023-09-08 10:11:53] <armagetron-bridge> 08discord:delinquent| that, whilst the action no doubt had a negative impact on Ukraine, it made financial sense at the time. Hence, the financial assessment metric would be significantly different from the social impact metric. If you adapt your ticker suggestions to your user profiles, you'd essentially be predicting a "change of hands" as it were - relating to holdings specifically.
[2023-09-08 10:11:54] <armagetronbridge> 08discord:delinquent| that, whilst the action no doubt had a negative impact on Ukraine, it made financial sense at the time. Hence, the financial assessment metric would be significantly different from the social impact metric. If you adapt your ticker suggestions to your user profiles, you'd essentially be predicting a "change of hands" as it were - relating to holdings specifically.
[2023-09-08 10:11:55] <armagetronbridge> 08discord:delinquent| There's a great deal you can do with this, if you can find a way to automate it. It might even be possible to use a LLM to guage the connotations of an event, as it is reported, which you can then use to somewhat automate a metric assessment, and feed that assessment into your project.
[2023-09-08 10:11:56] <armagetron-bridge> 08discord:delinquent| There's a great deal you can do with this, if you can find a way to automate it. It might even be possible to use a LLM to guage the connotations of an event, as it is reported, which you can then use to somewhat automate a metric assessment, and feed that assessment into your project.
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[2023-09-08 22:32:30] <Lucifer_arma> Well, there's only one user, and it's me, and the intent is to make money playing the stock market automatically.  In the process, I am building a real stock database that's currently just a copy of someone else's database, and down the road, metrics like that will be important.  So here's some fun stuff.
[2023-09-08 22:32:31] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| Well, there's only one user, and it's me, and the intent is to make money playing the stock market automatically.  In the process, I am building a real stock database that's currently just a copy of someone else's database, and down the road, metrics like that will be important.  So here's some fun stuff.
[2023-09-08 22:32:59] <Lucifer_arma> My main datasource provider actually provides an API where you can access news articles about a stock symbol, and I believe it's a daily thing.
[2023-09-08 22:32:59] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| My main datasource provider actually provides an API where you can access news articles about a stock symbol, and I believe it's a daily thing.
[2023-09-08 22:33:16] <Lucifer_arma> There's a lot of the boring financial stuff, reports on filings, that sort of thing.  But the feel-good pieces are in there too
[2023-09-08 22:33:16] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| There's a lot of the boring financial stuff, reports on filings, that sort of thing.  But the feel-good pieces are in there too
[2023-09-08 22:33:43] <Lucifer_arma> So you could write a job that downloads that information and then scans the text looking for particular indicators.
[2023-09-08 22:33:44] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| So you could write a job that downloads that information and then scans the text looking for particular indicators.
[2023-09-08 22:34:37] <Lucifer_arma> It's on my long-term plan, if this whole thing works out in the first place, to incorporate that data and possibly do my own web scraping looking for more information, because I don't want my long-term income to be reliant on certain companies/types of companies
[2023-09-08 22:34:37] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| It's on my long-term plan, if this whole thing works out in the first place, to incorporate that data and possibly do my own web scraping looking for more information, because I don't want my long-term income to be reliant on certain companies/types of companies
[2023-09-08 22:35:19] <Lucifer_arma> like my bank, I don't want any of my money going to fossil fuel companies of any kind.  Plastics derived from oil are fine, though.  As good as buying meat from the grocery store, anyway, which is problematic.
[2023-09-08 22:35:20] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| like my bank, I don't want any of my money going to fossil fuel companies of any kind.  Plastics derived from oil are fine, though.  As good as buying meat from the grocery store, anyway, which is problematic.
[2023-09-08 22:36:08] <Lucifer_arma> and before anybody says "You're buying stocks from investors, not the companies", companies actually play their own stocks, selling high and buying low as part of raising capital for growth.  This is literally one of the reasons capitalism exists in the first place.
[2023-09-08 22:36:08] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| and before anybody says "You're buying stocks from investors, not the companies", companies actually play their own stocks, selling high and buying low as part of raising capital for growth.  This is literally one of the reasons capitalism exists in the first place.
[2023-09-08 22:36:46] <Lucifer_arma> I believe you can also predict long-term financial outlook based on a company's ethical behavior
[2023-09-08 22:36:46] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| I believe you can also predict long-term financial outlook based on a company's ethical behavior
[2023-09-08 22:37:22] <Lucifer_arma> so there are other parts of the datasource API that get me access to a company's financial statements, SEC filings, and so forth, that can tell me if the company is being run well financially
[2023-09-08 22:37:22] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| so there are other parts of the datasource API that get me access to a company's financial statements, SEC filings, and so forth, that can tell me if the company is being run well financially
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[2023-09-08 22:58:01] <Lucifer_arma> This is now my favorite code that I've ever written:
[2023-09-08 22:58:01] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| This is now my favorite code that I've ever written:
[2023-09-08 22:58:17] <Lucifer_arma> ## The class your application must inherit.  It enables so, so many things that matter.
[2023-09-08 22:58:17] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| ## The class your application must inherit.  It enables so, so many things that matter.
[2023-09-08 22:58:18] <Lucifer_arma> class Application(object):
[2023-09-08 22:58:20] <Lucifer_arma>     pass
[2023-09-08 22:58:20] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| class Application(object):
[2023-09-08 22:58:20] <armagetronbridge> 10irc:Lucifer_arma| pass
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