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[2022-06-14 16:54:10] <Z-Man> This time, maybe. But with the transaction througput limit, the blockchain simply is not suited for any large scale real economy where everyone can use it to by their pizza. There are not too many possible end states. The best case scenario I can imagine is that a smallish community remains that keeps using it for real, not speculation driven, transactions; if that happens, the value is bound to stabilize. Where? We can guesstimate.
[2022-06-14 16:56:16] <Z-Man> So there are, at most, about 10 transactions per second,right? If I may take myself as a model, I make about one or two transactions per day, typically ranging from 5 to 100 bucks. Let's assume bitcoin is used for these kinds of transactions.
[2022-06-14 16:57:59] <Z-Man> So 10 transactions per second, say 20 bucks on average. That's 200 dollar per second, about 17 million per day.
[2022-06-14 17:00:36] <Z-Man> Current trading volume seems to be about 4 billion dollars per day.
[2022-06-14 17:05:02] <Z-Man> Now we have to make the physicist assumption that the exchange rate roughly is going to be proportional to the trading volume. Very roughly. If you check the past graphs, that about tracks. Maybe one can add a factor of 10 to the stable longterm value (oh, of cource I'm ignoring real world inflation, all dollar values are to be considered inflation corrected) because the nature of trading in the described end state is going to be
[2022-06-14 17:05:02] <Z-Man> different.
[2022-06-14 17:05:44] <Z-Man> So my prediction for the stable rate would be 10 * today's rate * 17 million / 4 billion.
[2022-06-14 17:06:50] <Z-Man> Trade volume guesstimate is from the past couple of weeks, so let's take the rate of that time, 30000 dollar per bitcoin.
[2022-06-14 17:08:46] <Z-Man> About 1300 dollar per bitcoin.
[2022-06-14 17:11:10] <Z-Man> With the beneficial factor of 10. If it goes into the other direction, it also may end up at 13 dollar.
[2022-06-14 17:13:22] <Z-Man> And yeah, if it stabilizes in that situation, one of the promises of the system is going to come true: the fixed total amount is going to prevent inflation. As long as the community size stays stable.
[2022-06-14 17:23:18] <Z-Man> Also, if we assume two transactions per day per community member, that supports about 400000 community members.Unless they also form real world local communities, they will be spread too thinly for meaningful trade against real goods. So the end state probably will have more people trading, but doing so less frequently. Say one pizza place in your town accepts bitcoin and you go there every other week.
[2022-06-14 17:27:11] <Z-Man> But note that the trading frequency per user did not enter my exchange rate guesstimate at all, just the average transaction size. So my longterm exchange rate range estimate stays.
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